Elected, accused of corruption – fired, accused of rape – acquitted, elected president, accused of corruption again – denied again, ousted, imprisoned for contempt of court – freed, barred from becoming an MP.
For most politicians almost any of these punches would have proved fatal to their career, but not for South Africa’s Jacob Zuma.
In the realm of South African politics, few figures elicit as much fascination and controversy as Jacob Zuma. Despite a tumultuous career marred by corruption allegations, legal battles, and political upheavals, Zuma has managed to maintain a resilient grip on the national stage, leaving a lasting impact on the country's political landscape.
Dubbed the 'Zuma tsunami,' the recent South Africa elections have showcased the enduring influence of the 82-year-old former president. Leading a new party, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), Zuma's political prowess became evident as his party secured an impressive 15% of the vote, dealing a significant blow to the ruling African National Congress (ANC).
One cannot overlook Zuma's stronghold in his heartland, KwaZulu-Natal province. In the bustling coastal city of Durban, Zuma's face adorns nearly every street lamp, beaming down from green-and-black election posters. His cultural and traditional Zulu beliefs, coupled with his role as a peacemaker during the tumultuous political violence of the early 1990s, have earned him immense respect and loyalty from the local population.
Zuma's ability to rally his base and connect with the poor and marginalized sections of society sets him apart from other politicians. His humble background, marked by a lack of formal schooling, resonates with many South Africans who have faced similar struggles. Despite facing numerous corruption allegations, Zuma's charisma and knack for outsmarting his opponents have allowed him to weather the storm and maintain a devoted following.
The road to Zuma's resurgence has been paved with adversity. Six years ago, he was forced to step down as president amidst a barrage of corruption allegations, which he vehemently denied. Cyril Ramaphosa assumed the presidential mantle, and Zuma's political career seemed to have reached its nadir. However, fate had other plans.
In a stunning turn of events, Zuma found himself incarcerated after being found in contempt of court for failing to testify at a corruption inquiry. His arrest in July 2021 sparked widespread riots, leading to the tragic loss of over 300 lives. President Ramaphosa, attempting to quell the unrest, released Zuma after he had served just three months of his 15-month sentence.
Recently, Zuma faced another setback when he was legally barred from standing as a member of parliament due to his conviction. However, to the surprise of many, this obstacle did not deter his supporters. They remained steadfast, declaring their unwavering loyalty to "uBaba" (father), as Zuma is affectionately known.
Zuma's resurgence poses a significant dilemma for the ANC, the party that played a pivotal role in ending apartheid. Despite his suspension from the ANC, Zuma remains a member, highlighting the complex dynamics at play within the party. The ANC now finds itself at a crossroads, contemplating the possibility of a coalition with the MK party to regain its footing.
As negotiations for potential coalitions unfold, tensions rise. Zuma, freshly emboldened by his party's performance, threw the first punch, alleging irregularities and warning against provoking his supporters. Amidst this acrimonious backdrop, the ANC has not ruled out the possibility of a coalition with the MK party, signaling the enduring influence of Zuma and the political uncertainty that lies ahead.
Jacob Zuma's unexpected resurgence in the political arena has captivated the nation, leaving many wondering about the future of South African politics. As the "Zuma tsunami" continues to reshape the political landscape, only time will tell how this enigmatic figure's return to power will impact the country's trajectory. One thing is certain: Jacob Zuma's ability to rise from the ashes like a phoenix has solidified his status as a force to be reckoned with in South African politics.
With the ANC’s popularity now at an all-time low and as Ramaphosa’s political future hangs in the balance, Zuma could have the last laugh. But it is too early to tell.
Due to the poor election showing, South Africa’s political landscape has been fundamentally altered, leaving the ANC with the daunting task of forming a coalition government.
In many countries, coalition talks can take months, but South Africa’s constitution gives rival parties a short window to do something they have never really done before: come together.
According to the constitution, rival parties have a mere 14 days to create a coalition after the final election results are announced. The outcome of these talks will likely determine Ramaphosa’s future as president.
Ramaphosa’s allies in the party are digging in. On Sunday, ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula warned potential coalition partners that the president’s resignation is “not going to happen.”
“I think the ANC has many factors to consider in terms of how it forms a government – both the stability of the country at large but also for the sake of having a government that still holds to the values of the ANC that it has long said that it serves,” said political analyst Tessa Dooms, programmes director at the Rivonia Circle non-profit organization/political think tank in Johannesburg.
The potential coalition partners present starkly different political ideologies and policy priorities.
“The only way Ramaphosa stays is through a DA-ANC coalition. Outside that, the other parties, MK and EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), have made it clear the first point of negotiation is he must go,” said TK Pooe, a senior lecturer at Wits School of Governance.
If the ANC were to pair with the DA, which received 21.8% of the vote, their combined support would amount to more than 60%, an outright majority. However, this relationship would require both parties to make some major compromises.
If the ANC decides to pursue coalition talks with MK, then Zuma will want Ramaphosa out, solidifying his revenge.
However, if South Africa’s president maintains his grip on the ANC, a coalition with MK is unlikely.
The MK party’s manifesto also demands an overhaul of the country’s constitution to restore more powers to traditional leaders.
Zuma “unapologetically focused his campaign around Zulu nationalism and that was a constituency that was easy for him to target,” political analyst and former ANC lawmaker Melanie Verwoerd told CNN.
By appealing to his Zulu base, Zuma’s party has also stirred ethnic and tribal tensions, a strategy that, while electorally effective, risks deepening divisions in South Africa, Verwoerd added.
The ANC’s policies, grounded in the principles of non-racial and non-tribal governance, are at odds with this approach.
It is also currently unclear how much MK actually wants to govern. Despite doing well at the polls, the party has demanded a re-run, threatened court action, and suggested boycotting the first sitting of Parliament. However, it has provided no evidence of voting irregularities.
