Johannesburg – South African peacekeepers stationed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could find themselves in a precarious "hostage" situation as the DRC government reportedly negotiates a minerals-for-security deal with the United States, potentially drawing US mercenaries into the conflict and further antagonising the M23 rebels.
The potential involvement of US "private military consultants" and the mounting international pressure on Rwanda, accused of supporting the rebels, could prompt the M23 to cling even tighter to what experts are calling their "trump cards" – the soldiers from the Southern African Development Community's (SADC) peace mission in the DRC, known as SAMIDRC.
The SADC announced earlier this week that the withdrawal of its 2,000 troops would occur in phases, but crucially, it did not confirm whether an agreement had been reached with the M23 regarding the withdrawal process. Experts believe the rebels will likely refuse to allow the withdrawal of combat equipment, including South Africa's artillery, advanced communication systems, and even assault weapons. It is also doubtful whether the M23 will allow forces to withdraw by plane from Goma, where most of the SAMIDRC soldiers, predominantly South Africans, are based in two camps.
The looming threat of US involvement stems from reports that DRC President Felix Tshisekedi is in negotiations with Eric Prince, the former head of Blackwater, a controversial private military company. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Prince's consultants, typically former US soldiers and special forces members, would assist Tshisekedi in collecting taxes from foreign companies and entities that operate mines in the DRC.
Many of these mines are located in areas controlled by the M23 since January. The assumption is that the American mercenaries would attempt to secure access to these mines, inevitably leading to direct conflict with the rebels. It remains unclear whether Tshisekedi's negotiations with the US government over mineral rights involve the deployment of any stabilisation forces. Blackwater, in the past, handled the US government's "dirty work" in Afghanistan.
The former South African general warns that US interference will further complicate the already complex situation of withdrawing the SAMIDRC troops. "I fear the issue of extracting the soldiers from the DRC will deepen with US and Prince's involvement. The rebels may cling to those SAMIDRC soldiers as their trump cards," he stated.
Adding to the concern is the strained relationship between the US and South Africa. "Additionally, US and South Africa's diplomatic relations are at an all-time low. The US could not care less about the South Africans' fate and would consider them collateral damage if things go wrong," the general added grimly. He further suggested that "The US would also finance any force Prince deploys there. Tshisekedi is desperate to hold onto his little remaining power at any cost, while Rwanda is equally desperate due to drying development aid and its own share of the minerals in the conflict zone." From a military point of view, it leaves our soldiers even more vulnerable than they currently are."
According to intelligence analyst Nel Marais, the DRC government will allegedly offer the US access to its only deepwater port at Banana (where the Congo River flows into the Atlantic Ocean) for mineral exports. The US is also expected to help train the DRC army, known to flee in intense battles. Together, these strengthened forces will help secure supply routes to the port, while the US is believed to gain concessions to mine the minerals.
"This force could even replace the United Nations peacekeeping force in the DRC, Monusco, which includes a significant number of South Africans," Marais stated. Tshisekedi has long sought the removal of Monusco, deeming them "ineffective."
Marais warns that collaboration with the US might also jeopardise the DRC's relationship with China, one of its most significant foreign investors and a long-time player in mineral extraction. "Conversely, no American companies currently mine in the DRC," Marais pointed out. "The move to grant concessions to the US instead would mean a victory over his arch-enemy China for President Donald Trump." Marais believes China will not accept this rebuff lightly.
The US recently blacklisted James Kabarebe, Rwanda's minister for regional integration, and Lawrence Kanyuka, the main spokesperson for the M23. The Trump administration alleges that Kabarebe serves as Rwanda's direct liaison with the M23, ensuring that profits from M23-controlled mines are exported from Rwanda.
Adding another layer of intrigue, Tshisekedi's deputy chief of staff, André Wameso, and a delegation were in Washington in early March to discuss the offer. Trump is reportedly in the process of appointing a special envoy concerned with the Great Lakes region and particularly Congolese mineral transactions. Massad Boulos, whose son is married to Trump's daughter Tiffany, is allegedly favoured for this appointment.
The situation in the DRC remains volatile and complex, with the potential for further escalation. The safety and security of the South African peacekeepers must be a priority, and all diplomatic avenues must be explored to ensure their safe withdrawal and prevent them from becoming pawns in a larger geopolitical game.
