Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the 2024 US presidential election has cast a long shadow over South Africa, leaving President Cyril Ramaphosa and his government in a precarious position.
The already strained relationship between the two nations, further complicated by South Africa's recent submission of a memorial to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza – a nation Trump staunchly supports – now faces a period of significant uncertainty.
“Congratulations to United States President-Elect -@realDonaldTrump- on your return to the presidency. I look forward to continuing the close and mutually beneficial partnership between our two nations across all domains of our co-operation. In the global arena, we look forward to our presidency of the G20 in 2025, where we will work closely with the US who will succeed us in the G20 presidency in 2026,” he wrote.
However, beneath the surface of diplomatic cordiality, a wave of apprehension ripples through South African political circles.
Political analysts have expressed concerns about the potential ramifications of Trump's return for South Africa's domestic and international standing. Sipho Tshabalala, an independent political analyst and writer, suggests that Trump’s victory could significantly weaken Ramaphosa’s grip on power. Tshabalala points to Ramaphosa's cultivation of close ties with wealthy American elites, particularly the Menell and Oppenheimer families, during Joe Biden’s presidency. He argues that this carefully constructed network of support is now vulnerable under Trump's leadership.
“The GNU, far from being a co-operative initiative, has allowed the DA to pull the strings on crucial government decisions, from foreign policy to key ministerial appointments,” Tshabalala asserts. He further suggests that Ramaphosa's reliance on these powerful families leaves him exposed to both domestic and international threats.
Tendai Mbanje, from the University of Pretoria’s Centre for Human Rights, echoed these concerns in a national television interview. He described South Africa's situation as “uncertain,” particularly given the existing tensions with the Trump administration.
“It’s going to make it harder for SA to make arguments with Trump at the helm. Especially with the GNU. So the government is between a rock and a hard place because Trump is a transactionalist that could be the key to end the war in Gaza… However, we must remember he has no soft spot for Hamas,” Mbanje observed.
Dr Gideon Chitanga, a respected international relations expert, added a layer of concern regarding US-Africa relations. He warned that Trump’s "America First" policies will likely overshadow African interests. Chitanga noted the shift towards re-engagement under Biden, including a planned visit to Angola, but fears Trump's return could reverse this progress.
“The immediate aftermath will be uncertain, until a clear picture of the new Trump Africa policy can emerge,” Chitanga stated.
However, not all analysts share this pessimistic view. Sandile Swana, for instance, believes South Africa's decision to take Israel to court was justified and that Trump's business acumen could potentially facilitate a resolution to the Gaza conflict.
“Trump being the deal maker that he is, he has to find a way for Israel and Palestine out of the mess… In as much as his support base, the evangelical Christian supports the biblical claim that is that land of Israel. Trump is a businessman and would want a deal done that is less costly than what is going on for the US at the moment. Ramaphosa is correct in sending congratulation messages to Trump… Trump is going to make it possible for a settlement between the Ukraine and Russia and SA has been working towards that objective,” Swana argued.
