Johannesburg – The Government of National Unity (GNU) is facing a critical test as the ANC and the DA engage in intense negotiations over the national Budget. After talks collapsed on Friday, threatening the stability of the coalition, the ANC reached out to the DA in a bid to salvage the situation before the looming deadline to pass the fiscal framework on Monday.
A source familiar with the discussions told News24 on Sunday that the resumed negotiations were "more constructive than the previous round," raising hopes that a deal could be reached. However, the source cautioned that "none has been agreed to yet," leaving the future of the GNU hanging in the balance.
The DA has expressed concerns that the ANC is deliberately attempting to collapse the GNU in order to forge an alternative agreement with Julius Malema's EFF. This suspicion has further strained relations between the two parties and added to the uncertainty surrounding the Budget process.
Since Friday, the ANC and the DA have engaged in more detailed discussions of the DA's proposals, with the ANC putting forward amendments and counterproposals. While some areas of consensus are emerging, significant differences remain on key issues.
Parliament's Standing Committee on Finance is scheduled to finalise its deliberations on the fiscal framework on Monday and vote on it on Tuesday. Should the ANC and DA fail to reach an agreement before then, the DA has vowed not to support the fiscal framework when it is tabled in the National Assembly.
Such a move would have serious repercussions for the other laws required to approve the Budget, including the Appropriations Bill, the Division of Revenue Bill, and the Revenue Bills, which are due to come before the House for a vote later this year.
The ANC's national executive committee (NEC) is currently meeting in Boksburg on the East Rand, where President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to address the matter. The DA's leadership, the federal executive, is also scheduled to meet on Sunday night to discuss the ongoing negotiations and chart a way forward.
While the ANC and DA are locked in negotiations, the ANC is also reportedly engaging with the EFF and the MK Party in an attempt to secure the necessary votes to pass the Budget in the National Assembly. This behind-the-scenes manoeuvring highlights the complex political dynamics at play and the ANC's determination to ensure the Budget is approved, even if it means relying on support from other parties.
ANC leaders attending the NEC meeting in Boksburg have expressed confidence that the Budget will pass "with or without the DA." Many believe that the DA is unlikely to leave the GNU and that the ANC's negotiating experience will ultimately prevail.
Sources close to the matter have revealed that the ANC has been in discussions with the MK Party. However, the MK Party has reportedly rejected the Budget due to the proposed VAT increase. The EFF, on the other hand, is still considering whether to vote with the ANC in exchange for a place in the GNU.
The ANC is confident that both the EFF and MK Party will ultimately set aside their reservations and seize the opportunity to join the GNU if the DA threatens to withdraw.
According to an ANC leader with intimate knowledge of the negotiations, "Well, the EFF and MK have publicly rejected the VAT increase. But remember both have been itching in the wings to join the GNU. Some in their ranks feel they negotiated wrongly at the beginning, which left them outside."
Another source within the ANC's NEC stated that President Ramaphosa, in his political overview at Birchwood on Friday afternoon, accused the DA of using the Budget as a bargaining chip.
"The president told us that the DA was behaving as if it does not want a VAT increase because it is pro-poor, but this was not the sentiment it shared during discussions. It basically went into discussions to show its constituency that it is fighting. In the end the DA will vote for the budget to show that it wants to make the GNU work," the source claimed.
A highly ranked insider argued that the DA has gained significant political capital from its representation in the national Cabinet, making it difficult for the party to leave the GNU at this stage.
"Their PR machinery has been working overtime to show their 'achievements' in government, and they have realised that it is better to fight issues from within," the source added.
The ANC is reportedly approaching the upcoming week of voting on the national Budget with a sense of confidence, believing that it holds the upper hand in the negotiations.
Some within the ANC believe that having the MK Party and EFF outside the GNU has actually benefited the ruling party, as it allows them to use the threat of their inclusion to pressure the DA into compliance.
"This is why the ANC has so far managed to pass everything that the DA opposes, because in reality we know they are going nowhere because opening a gap for MK and EFF is what they fear the most," an NEC member stated.
The leader cited the Bela Bill and the Expropriation Act as examples of legislation that the GNU administration has passed despite the DA's opposition, demonstrating the ANC's ability to leverage the DA's fear of the EFF and MK Party to achieve its objectives.
